Windows PCs See Steepest Decline Ever

Readers of this blog will remember that I have been issuing negative predictions about Windows 8 ever since I first saw it.  PC Magazine Columnist John C. Dvorak now seems positively prescient with his June 2011 column, "Will Windows 8 Kill Microsoft?"  There is growing evidence the negative predictions were right:  

The market for Windows-based PCs has declined faster than anticipated. According to two independent reports, PCs fell off 11.2 percent to 13.9 percent in the first quarter of 2013 — the steepest decline in the history of the PC.

A 'Worrisome' Decline

According to market research firm IDC, worldwide PC shipments fell of 13.9 percent in the first quarter (versus 1Q 2012) to 76.3 million units worldwide, significantly greater than IDC's previous forecast of a decline of 7.7 percent.

IDC pointed to the launch of Windows 8 as a contributing factor to the hefty decline.

"At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC program vice president, clients and displays, in a prepared statement.  "While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices.  Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market."

Microsoft keeps blowing it with desktop operating systems.  Remember Windows Vista?  It was supposed to drive new PC sales just as Windows 8 is supposed to now.  Only instead of driving PC sales with a new operating system that people wanted to upgrade to, Microsoft tried to force new PC sales by selling an operating system that couldn't run on the PC's that anyone currently owned.  People rebelled, and the result was a relatively quick roll out of Windows 7. 

Microsoft continues to labor under the impression that instead of listening to what customers actually want, or even what computer experts think computers should actually look like, they can make design decisions based on what business and marketing experts tell them they should be selling.

Let me add a note to all PC manufacturers:  PC users don't want to touch their screens!  It is one thing to wipe the fingerprints off my tablet once every couple of days.  I would really hate to have to clean my laptop or desktop PC that often.  And the best way to interact with data on a screen is with a mouse or trackpad.

So let's hope that Microsoft comes out with a replacement for Windows 8 as quickly as they replaced Vista with Windows 7.  And, while Microsoft is rethinking its mistakes with Windows 8, it might want to rethink that "ribbon interface" in Office as well.

I have been saying for a decade that I could run Microsoft better than Steve Ballmer.  So if anyone in Redmond is reading this, I'm available.  Call me.